Over the last four years we’ve had three Prime Ministers, two general elections, a referendum that changed the UK’s political landscape, and- now- a third general election which our current Prime Minister hopes will bring clarity to our relationship with the EU. With all the uncertainty in the air, is it possible to predict what the upcoming election will mean for London’s property market?
It might be. Looking back at data from the previous two elections, we’ve identified a trend that occurred despite the differing political climates surrounding them and the subsequent results.
In the three months immediately after the 2015 general election, in which David Cameron’s Conservative party won an outright majority, we experienced a 35% increase in first-time buyers making a purchase.
Come 2017, and politics in the UK was dominated by Brexit. The year’s general election was less successful for the Conservatives, with Teresa May remaining in power but losing her majority. Despite the softening of the prime London residential property market due to lack of certainty around Brexit, and the election’s outcome differing to that of 2015, we still had 25% more first-time buyers buying through us in the quarter following the vote.
So, what does this mean for the rest of the year and the first quarter of 2020? We expect to see an increase in demand for properties that cater to first-time buyers (typically one- and two-bedroom properties) if the election result leads to greater certainty around our planned exit from the EU. This will have a positive effect on pricing for those who want to upsize or sell one of their properties.
Even if the situation around Brexit is still unclear after the election, we expect some increase in demand after it. This will be down to the unusual timing of the vote: Christmas is less than two weeks after it, and last year Rightmove reported a 231% increase in page views between Christmas day and the second of January. Our advice to purchasers? Don’t wait for the results of the election to begin your search. Being proactive at this time will pay off.
If you would like to learn more, our Sales team would be more than happy to discuss the market in more detail. Contact them here.
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